Datasets

These charts show indices which indicate the susceptibility of the troposphere to support free convection. Typical values of the different indices depend on location and...

ECMWF is now running a series of data-driven forecasts as part of its experimental suite. These machine-learning based models are very fast, and they produce a 10-day forecast with 6-hourly time steps in approximately one minute. The outputs are available in graphical form.

Currently, three of these models are available:

This diagram shows time evolution of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. ...

This chart shows probability information regarding lightning flash density derived from the ...

This chart shows probability information regarding CAPE shear derived from the ECMWF ensemble ...

This chart shows probability information regarding MUCAPE derived from the ECMWF ensemble (ENS) ...

ECMWF is now running its own Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS). The AIFS consists of a deterministic model and an ensemble model. The deterministic model has been running operationally since 25 February 2025; further details can be found on the dedicated Implementation of AIFS Single v1 page.

These charts show areas where anomalous CAPE are likely to occur.

These charts show areas where anomalous CAPE Shear are likely to occur.

MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy) is an indicator of atmospheric instability (the susceptibility of the troposphere to support free convection) and...