Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

TitleReview of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)
Publication TypePoster
Date Published2016
EventECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty
AuthorsGagnon, N, Houtekamer, PL, Deng, X-X, Erfani, A, Charron, M
Conference LocationECMWF
Keywordsmodel uncertainty, workshop
Abstract

MSC is running a 20 member GEPS (0.45x0.45L40) up to Day 16 operationally (32 days on Thursdays at 00Z). This system is using an Ensemble Kalman Filter as a data assimilation scheme (Houtekamer et al. 2014) to generate the initial conditions for the medium-range ensemble forecasts. The forecast perturbations are coming from set a multi-physical parameterizations as well as two stochastic approaches (physical tendencies perturbations and the stochastic energy back-scattering scheme).

  • Context: In preparation of the arrival a new supercomputer and the associated opportunity to increase model resolution, an evaluation of the different perturbations methods of the MSC Global Ensemble Prediction System is performed.
  • Goal of the study: review the source of spread in the system.
  • Method: several experiments with individual source removed incrementally

 

URLhttps://www.ecmwf.int/node/17062
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