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Weather prediction in a world of uncertainties: should we care about model uncertainty?

Author

Roberto Buizza

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79559-weather-prediction-world-uncertainties-should-we-care-about-model-uncertainty.pdf

Stochastic parametrisation models for GFD

Author

Darryl Holm

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79560-stochastic-parametrisation-models-gfd.pdf

A weather-system perspective on forecast errors

Author

Heinli Wernli

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79561-weather-system-perspective-forecast-errors.pdf

New coviariance statistics of model error for use in weak-constraint 4DVar

Author

Jacky Goddard

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79562-new-coviariance-statistics-model-error-use-weak-constraint-4dvar.pdf

Diagnosing systematic numerical weather prediction model bias over the Antarctic from short-term forecast tendencies

Author

Steven Cavallo

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79563-diagnosing-systematic-numerical-weather-prediction-model-bias-over-antarctic-short-term.pdf

Using forecast temporal variability to evaluate model behaviour

Author

Carolyn Reynolds

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79564-using-forecast-temporal-variability-evaluate-model-behaviour.pdf

Model uncertainty representations in the IFS

Author

Pirkka Ollinaho

Anton Beljaars

Thomas Haiden

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79565-model-uncertainty-representations-ifs.pdf

Representing model error in the Met Office convection permitting ensemble prediction system

Author

Anne McCabe

Richard Swinbank

Warren Tennant

Sarah-Jane Lock

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79566-representing-model-error-met-office-convection-permitting-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf

Model Uncertainty Representation in COSMO-DE-EPS

Author

Susanne Theis

Michael Buchhold

Christoph Gebhardt

Regina Kohlhepp

Andreas Röpnack

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79567-model-uncertainty-representation-cosmo-de-eps.pdf

Model uncertainty estimation in global ocean models: Stochastic parametrizations of ocean mixing

Author

Stephan Juricke

Tim Palmer

Antje Weisheimer

Laure Zanna

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79568-model-uncertainty-estimation-global-ocean-models-stochastic-parametrizations-ocean-mixing.pdf

Representing model uncertainty for climate forecasts

Author

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79569-representing-model-uncertainty-climate-forecasts.pdf

Impact of a stochastic deep convection scheme using cellular automata in the meso-scale ensemble prediction system; Harmon-EPS

Author

Lisa Bengtsson

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79570-impact-stochastic-deep-convection-scheme-using-cellular-automata-meso-scale-ensemble.pdf

Parameter uncertainty of chaotic systems

Author

Heikki Haario

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79571-parameter-uncertainty-chaotic-systems.pdf

Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

Author

Daniel Hodyss

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79572-inducing-tropical-cyclones-undergo-brownian-motion.pdf

Improving the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies scheme using High-Resolution Model Simulations

Author

H Christensen

Sarah-Jane Lock

Andrew Dawson

Tim Palmer

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79616-improving-stochastically-perturbed-parametrisation-tendencies-scheme-using-high-resolution.pdf

Resolved and parametrized energy cascades in the IFS

Author

Sylvie Malardel

Nils Wedi

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79617-resolved-and-parametrized-energy-cascades-ifs.pdf

On the diagnosis of model error statistics using weak-constraint data assimilation

Author

Neill Bowler

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79620-diagnosis-model-error-statistics-using-weak-constraint-data-assimilation.pdf

Working group 1: What are the sources of model error?

Author

Richard Forbes

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79621-working-group-1-what-are-sources-model-error.pdf

Working group 2: How can we improve the diagnosis of model error?

Author

Heinli Wernli

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79622-working-group-2-how-can-we-improve-diagnosis-model-error.pdf

Use of satellite data in the ECMWF analysis system

Author

J. Pailleux

1985, Conference Paper, Workshop on High Resolution Analysis, 24-26 June 1985

File

75894-use-satellite-data-ecmwf-analysis-system.pdf

Generalised spline surfaces

Author

M.A. Pedder

1985, Conference Paper, Workshop on High Resolution Analysis, 24-26 June 1985

File

75960-generalised-spline-surfaces.pdf

Parameterization of the interactions between boundary layer clouds and boundary layer turbulence

Author

D.A. Randall

1985, Conference Paper, Seminar on Physical Parameterization for Numerical Models of the Atmosphere, 9-13 September 1985

File

76099-parameterization-interactions-between-boundary-layer-clouds-and-boundary-layer-turbulence.pdf

Working group 3: What are and how do we measure the pros and cons of existing approaches?

Author

Carolyn Reynolds

Martin Leutbecher

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79971-working-group-3-what-are-and-how-do-we-measure-pros-and-cons-existing-approaches.pdf

Mesoscale convective systems as a source of model error

Author

Glenn Shutts

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79749-mesoscale-convective-systems-source-model-error.pdf

Search ECMWF publications

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Weather prediction in a world of uncertainties: should we care about model uncertainty?

Stochastic parametrisation models for GFD

A weather-system perspective on forecast errors

New coviariance statistics of model error for use in weak-constraint 4DVar

Diagnosing systematic numerical weather prediction model bias over the Antarctic from short-term forecast tendencies

Using forecast temporal variability to evaluate model behaviour

Model uncertainty representations in the IFS

Representing model error in the Met Office convection permitting ensemble prediction system

Model Uncertainty Representation in COSMO-DE-EPS

Model uncertainty estimation in global ocean models: Stochastic parametrizations of ocean mixing

Representing model uncertainty for climate forecasts

Impact of a stochastic deep convection scheme using cellular automata in the meso-scale ensemble prediction system; Harmon-EPS

Parameter uncertainty of chaotic systems

Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

Improving the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies scheme using High-Resolution Model Simulations

Resolved and parametrized energy cascades in the IFS

On the diagnosis of model error statistics using weak-constraint data assimilation

Working group 1: What are the sources of model error?

Working group 2: How can we improve the diagnosis of model error?

Use of satellite data in the ECMWF analysis system

Generalised spline surfaces

Parameterization of the interactions between boundary layer clouds and boundary layer turbulence

Working group 3: What are and how do we measure the pros and cons of existing approaches?

Mesoscale convective systems as a source of model error

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