ECMWF | Reading | 4 June 2018
There is growing recognition of the importance of impact-based forecasting and the benefits of integrating early warning systems across multiple natural hazards, as reflected in the WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services.
In response, ECMWF Member and Co-operating States are increasingly developing multi-hazard Early Warning Centres. ECMWF outputs are a major resource for these Early Warning Centres and it is important that the needs of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) for ECMWF outputs are clearly established.
This workshop identified how ECMWF can improve its support for the specific needs of Member and Co-operating States in the context of Early Warning Centres. It was held held before the more general Using ECMWF Forecasts meeting (which has a complementary topic).
The workshop considered NMHS requirements in the context of:
- generating specialised warning services for different sectors, in particular based on multiple ensemble products (from limited-area models and ECMWF outputs)
- enhancing the development of indicators such as the Extreme Forecast Index to feed into the automated production of early warnings at different time and space scales
- integrating multiple natural hazards which can be predicted using ECMWF outputs
- integrating information across multiple time scales, including exploiting the synergies and overlaps between ECMWF NWP outputs and the Copernicus Services at ECMWF
- enabling NMHS R&D departments to optimally exploit ECMWF’s resources to support their national strategies and enhance the quality of warnings
- providing training material on the use and application of ECMWF outputs in early warning activities
- developing narratives and storylines based on the use of ECMWF outputs to support NMHSs in their communication activities and to share examples of best practice
Croatia (Lovro Kalin, DHMZ)
Ireland (Gerry Murphy, Met Eireann)
Israel (Eyal Amitai, IMS)
United Kingdom (Ken Mylne, Met Office)
ECMWF (David Richardson)