ECMWF | Reading | 11-14 September 2017


Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Twenty-five years ago, both the ECMWF and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started producing global, medium-range ensemble forecasts as part of their operational suites. The implementation of these ensembles induced a paradigm shift in NWP from providing a single forecast, to issuing a range of forecasts that can be used to identify possible future scenarios, to compute the probability of events of interest, and in general to estimate forecast confidence levels. Today, ensembles are routinely used to provide estimates of the probability distributions of analyses and forecasts.

During the Seminar, we will discuss whether the existing ensemble designs can continue to deliver improvements, or whether we need to re-consider their configurations. We will revisit the main assumptions behind the different strategies used to simulate initial and model uncertainties, and assess whether there is clear evidence that one approach should be preferred to another. We will look at how global and regional ensembles can complement each other, and whether different ensemble techniques should be used to estimate the initial or forecast state of the atmosphere. Sources and sinks of forecast skill will also be discussed.

Seminar aims

The seminar is part of ECMWF's educational programme and is aimed at young scientists but also more established scientists that want to engage more with ensemble prediction.

Invited speakers

Magdalena Balmaseda, ECMWF
Angela Benedetti, ECMWF
Francois Bouttier, Météo France
Neill Bowler, Met Office
Roberto Buizza, ECMWF
Hannah Cloke, University of Reading
Dale Durran, University of Washington
Laura Ferranti, ECMWF
Chris Ferro, University of Exeter
Inger-Lise Frogner,
Renate Hagedorn, DWD
Peter Houtekamer, CMC
Debbie Hudson, BMRC
Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland
Simon Lang, ECMWF
Martin Leutbecher, ECMWF
Sarah-Jane Lock, ECMWF
Franco Molteni, ECMWF
Tim Palmer, Oxford University
Chiara Piccolo, Met Office
Laure Raynaud, Météo France
David Richardson, ECMWF
Mark Rodwell, ECMWF
David Sexton, Met Office
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/ESRL
Joe Tribbia, NCAR
Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF
Laure Zanna, University of Oxford

Attendance information and fee

This seminar is free to participants from ECMWF's Member and Co-operating States. We will charge a registration fee (see below) for any other applicants.

Please note that no funds are available from ECMWF to support participant's attendance at the seminar.

The seminar is open to a maximum of 100 participants.

The deadline for registration is 27 July 2017.

Registration fee

The registration fee is 250 GBP for participants not residing in one of ECMWF's Member or Co-operating states. This includes an ice-breaker, one evening dinner and coffee breaks.

Please pay the registration fee by 27 July by bank transfer (see payment information).

EMS travel award

The European Meteorological Society will sponsor one scientist to attend the seminar in its Young Scientist Travel Awards scheme. The award is to support participation of outstanding students and young scientists at EMS-co-sponsored conferences. The award consists of a financial contribution towards travel expenses. The deadline for applications was 14 June 2017.

Organising committee

Roberto Buizza, Martin Leutbecher, Anna Ghelli, Antje Weisheimer, Franco Molteni, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, Sarah-Jane Lock, Tim Stockdale, Massimo Bonavita, David Richardson.