Update July 2016: The Council has approved the new strategy for the period 2016–2025.
Goals by 2025
To provide forecast information needed to help save lives, protect infrastructure and promote economic development in Member and Co-operating States through:
Research at the frontiers of knowledge to develop an integrated global model of the Earth system to produce forecasts with increasing fidelity on time ranges up to one year ahead. This will tackle the most difficult problems in numerical weather prediction such as the currently low level of predictive skill of European weather for a month ahead.
Operational ensemble-based analyses and predictions that describe the range of possible scenarios and their likelihood of occurrence and that raise the international bar for quality and operational reliability. Skill in medium-range weather predictions in 2016, on average, extends to about one week ahead. By 2025 the goal is to make skilful ensemble predictions of high-impact weather up to two weeks ahead. By developing a seamless approach, we also aim to predict large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead, and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead.
The strategy covers a 10-year period and is renewed every 5 years. As a user-driven organisation, ECMWF discusses its strategy with representatives of Member States before submitting it to the Council for adoption.