On this page you can find progress reports written during the project and a list of papers related to our contributions to the overall project.


Here is a list of scientific reports compiled during the project:

Periodic Activity Reports (PAR):

Detailed Implementation Plans (DIP):


To cite the Stream 1 experiment, please refer to

To site the Stream 2 experiment, please refer to

Related papers:

  • Alessandri, A., A. Borrelli, A. Navarra, A. Arribas, M. Deque, P. Rogel and A. Weisheimer (2011). Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts: comparison with DEMETER. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139(2), 581-607, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3417.1.
  • Berner, J., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, G. Shutts and A. Weisheimer (2008). Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 366, 2561-2579, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2008.0033.
  • Collins, M. (2007): Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2068.
  • Doblas-Reyes et al. (2006): Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 33, L07708, doi:10.1029/2005GL025061, 2006.
  • Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J.M. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith and T.N. Palmer (2009). Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical seasonal forecasts. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 135, 1538-1559.
  • Frame, D.J., Faull, N.E., Joshi, M.M. and Allen, M.R. (2007): Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 1971-1992.
  • Huebener, H., Cubasch, U., Langematz, U., Spangehl, T., Nierhorster, F., Fast, I. and Kunze, M. (2007): Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere General Circulation Model (GCM). Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, doi:10.1098/rsta.
  • Keenlyside, N.S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner (2008): Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector. Nature, 453, 84-88.
  • Liniger, M.A., H. Mathis, C. Appenzeller and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2007): Realistic greenhouse gas forcing and seasonal forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04705, doi:10.1029/2006GL028335, 2007.
  • McLaren, A.J., H. T. Banks, C. F. Durman, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, A.B. Keen, J. K. Ridley, M. J. Roberts, W. H. Lipscomb, W. M. Connolley and S. W. Laxon (2006): Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1). J. Geophys. Res., 111, C12014, doi:10.1029/2005JC003033.
  • Murphy, J. M., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. and Webb, M. (2007): A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 1993-2028, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2077.
  • Palmer, T.N., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn, and A. Weisheimer (2005). Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 360, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1750.
  • Palmer, T.N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2007): Seasonal Forecast Datasets - A resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections? CLIVAR Exchanges, 43, 6-7.
  • Palmer, T.N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2008): Reliability of climate change projections of precipitation: Towards "seamless" climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 459-470, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459.
  • Palmer, T.N. and A. Weisheimer (2011): Diagnosing the Causes of Bias in Climate Models - Why it is so Hard? Geophysic. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 105(2), doi:10.1080/03091929.2010.547194
  • Rodwell, M.J., and T.N. Palmer (2007): Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 129-146, doi: 10.1002/qj.23. 2007.
  • Shutts, G.J., and T.N. Palmer (2007): Convective forcing fluctuations in a cloud-resolving model: Relevance to the stochastic parameterization problem. J. Climate, 20, 187-202, 2007.
  • Smith, D. M. and J. M. Murphy (2007): An objective ocean temperature and salinity analysis using covariances from a global climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C02022, doi:10.1029/2005JC003172.
  • Smith, D.M., Cusack, S., Colman, A.W., Folland, C.K. and J.M. Murphy (2007): Improved surface temperature for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799.
  • Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Tredger, E.R. and Smith, L.A. (2007): Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate prediction. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161.
  • Troccoli, A. and Palmer, T. N. (2007): Ensemble decadal prediction from analysed initial conditions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2079.
  • Weisheimer, A., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra, and P. Rogel (2009), ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896.
  • Weisheimer, A., F. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung and T. Palmer (2011). On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046455.
  • Vitart, F. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2007): Impact of an increase of greenhouse gas concentrations during the past 50 years on tropical storms in a coupled GCM. Tellus A, 59, 417-427.
  • Vitart, F., M.R. Huddleston, M. Déqué, D. Peake, T.N. Palmer, T.N. Stockdale, M.K. Davey, S. Ineson and A. Weisheimer (2007): Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740, 2007.