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Representing atmospheric model uncertainties: Applications in seasonal forecasts with CNRM-CM

Author

Lauriane Batte

Michel Déqué

2016, Poster

File

17043-representing-atmospheric-model-uncertainties-applications-seasonal-forecasts-cnrm-cm.pdf

AEMET-&-SREPS: Convection-permitting EPS

Author

Alfons Pallarès

J.A. Garcia-Moya

M. Compte

P. Escriba

Carlos Santos

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17044-aemet-sreps-convection-permitting-eps.pdf

Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Author

Shuyi Chen

Hannah Christensen

Brandon Kerns

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17045-predictability-and-model-uncertainty-mjo-convection-and-propagation-ecmwf-ifs-stochastic.pdf

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Author

Alessandro Dell’Aquila

Susanna Corti

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17046-model-uncertainty-representing-midlatitude-atmospheric-synoptic-variability-spectral.pdf

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Author

Pieter De Meutter

Johan Camps

Andy Delcloo

Piet Termonia

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17057-uncertainty-quantification-atmospheric-transport-and-dispersion-backtracking-using-ensemble.pdf

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Author

Peter Düben

Tim Palmer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17059-model-uncertainty-quantification-using-ultra-efficient-inexact-hardware.pdf

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Author

N. Gagnon

P.L. Houtekamer

X.-X. Deng

A. Erfani

M. Charron

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17062-review-perturbation-methods-meteorological-service-canada-msc-global-ensemble-prediction.pdf

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Author

Christina Klasa

Heini Wernli

Andre Walser

Marco Arpagaus

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17071-case-study-based-evaluation-stochastic-physics-effects-high-resolution-ensemble-cosmo-e.pdf

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Author

Chih-Hsin Li

Jing-Shan Hong

Xing-Qin Fang

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17072-evaluation-skebs-impact-wrf-based-mesoscale-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Author

Ekaterina Machulskaya

Richard Keane

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17073-representation-model-error-using-stochastic-equation-flow-dependent-spatial-and-temporal.pdf

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Author

Dave MacLeod

Hannah Cloke

Florian Pappenberger

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17074-perturbing-hydrology-parameters-seasonal-forecasts.pdf

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Author

Husain Najafi

Ali Bavani

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17075-bayesian-framework-design-quantifying-model-uncertainty-univariate-probabilistic-mixture-model.pdf

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

Author

Robert Plant

S.R.A. Dey

N.M. Roberts

S. Migliorini

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17076-assessing-spatial-precipitation-uncertainties-convective-scale-ensemble.pdf

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Author

Nigel Roberts

Seonaid Dey

Giovanni Leoncini

Robert Plant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17078-spatial-behaviour-and-evaluation-convection-permitting-ensemble.pdf

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

Author

Tobias Selz

George Craig

Lotte Bierdel

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17079-upscale-impact-diabatic-processes-convective-near-hemispheric-scale.pdf

Analysis of the extreme rainfall event in North China in 19-20 July 2016 and its forecast performance of ECMWF’s products

Author

F. Jiolan

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17289-analysis-extreme-rainfall-event-north-china-19-20-july-2016-and-its-forecast-performance.pdf

Stratus clouds in wintertime anticyclones in Hungary

Author

K. Kolláth

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17290-stratus-clouds-wintertime-anticyclones-hungary.pdf

Facing weather risks during The Floating Piers

Author

G. Minardi

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17291-facing-weather-risks-during-floating-piers.pdf

Combining high-resolution numerical weather predictions with human expertise for real-time, localized www and mobile app weather forecasts

Author

L. Moret

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17292-combining-high-resolution-numerical-weather-predictions-human-expertise-real-time-localized.pdf

The Windstorm „EGON“ – an example for a rapid cyclogenesis

Author

T. Schumann

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17293-windstorm-egon-example-rapid-cyclogenesis.pdf

Early spring thunderstorm development

Author

R. Penchev

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17294-early-spring-thunderstorm-development.pdf

Stochastic multi-scale modeling for weather and climate prediction

Author

Aneesh Subramanian

Tim Palmer

Marat Khairoutdinov

Frédéric Vitart

Peter Bechtold

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16320-workshop-model-uncertainty-poster-aneesh-subramanian.pdf

An adaptive additive inflation scheme for ensemble Kalman filters

Author

Matthias Sommer

Tijana Janjic

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16300-addaptive-additive-inflation-scheme-ensemble-kalman-filters.pdf

Impacts of a spatially varying random parameterscheme on cloud cover in MOGREPS

Author

Warren Tennant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16301-impacts-spatially-varying-random-parameterscheme-cloud-cover-mogreps.pdf

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Representing atmospheric model uncertainties: Applications in seasonal forecasts with CNRM-CM

AEMET-&-SREPS: Convection-permitting EPS

Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

Analysis of the extreme rainfall event in North China in 19-20 July 2016 and its forecast performance of ECMWF’s products

Stratus clouds in wintertime anticyclones in Hungary

Facing weather risks during The Floating Piers

Combining high-resolution numerical weather predictions with human expertise for real-time, localized www and mobile app weather forecasts

The Windstorm „EGON“ – an example for a rapid cyclogenesis

Early spring thunderstorm development

Stochastic multi-scale modeling for weather and climate prediction

An adaptive additive inflation scheme for ensemble Kalman filters

Impacts of a spatially varying random parameterscheme on cloud cover in MOGREPS

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