Initialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project

TitleInitialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project
Publication TypeMiscellaneous
Year of Publication2007
AuthorsWeisheimer, A, Doblas-Reyes, F, Rogel, P, Da Costa, E, Keenlyside, N, M. Balmaseda, A, Murphy, JM, Smith, DM, Collins, M, Bhaskaran, B, Palmer, TN
Secondary TitleTechnical Memorandum
Number521
Abstract

Forecasting decadal climate fluctuations using coupled ocean-atmosphere models initialised as realistically as possible is a newly emerging field of climate prediction. This report describes the anticipated initialisation strategies for the atmosphere and ocean components which will be applied in the FP6 EU-funded project ENSEMBLES (<a href="http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/index.html">http://ensembles-eu.metoff...) stream 2 decadal hindcasts. The following modelling groups will take part in these activities: ECMWF using IFS/HOPE, CERFACS/CNRM using ARPEGE/OPA, IfM-GEOMAR using ECHAM5/MPIOM, and METO-HC using the Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) in two different configurations based on HadCM3. A major challenge to the development of decadal prediction systems is the initialisation of the ocean. There are two key problems: first, there is a lack of ocean data. This is particularly problematic for carrying out retrospective hindcasts, which are essential to the development of a decadal prediction system. Second, there is a lack of understanding of the mechanisms involved, and hence of the key quantities and regions to initialise. The following report will give details of how the participating modelling groups plan to address these questions.