TY - GEN AU - Karan Ruparell AU - Kieran Hunt AU - Hannah Cloke AU - Christel Prudhomme AU - Florian Pappenberger AU - Matthew Chantry AB - The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is a vital metric in earth system forecasting, how-ever it is still unintuitive for many users. In hydrology, we are increasingly transitioning to proba-bilistic and ensemble decisions making, and so informed use of metrics such as the CRPS is crucial. In this technical memorandum, we provide an overview of the CRPS. We highlight its growing im-portance, particularly in the context of machine learning, and then explain its relationship to various other metrics and scores commonly used in earth system forecasting, such as the Brier score and Mean Absolute Error. We then go on to apply the CRPS in the context of hydrological forecasting.
  BT - Technical Memoranda CY - Reading DA - 12/2025 DO - 10.21957/16101872b5 M1 - 935 N2 - The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is a vital metric in earth system forecasting, how-ever it is still unintuitive for many users. In hydrology, we are increasingly transitioning to proba-bilistic and ensemble decisions making, and so informed use of metrics such as the CRPS is crucial. In this technical memorandum, we provide an overview of the CRPS. We highlight its growing im-portance, particularly in the context of machine learning, and then explain its relationship to various other metrics and scores commonly used in earth system forecasting, such as the Brier score and Mean Absolute Error. We then go on to apply the CRPS in the context of hydrological forecasting.
  PB - ECMWF PP - Reading PY - 2025 T2 - Technical Memoranda TI - A Hydrologist’s guide to the CRPS UR -   ER -