Hydrological Ensemble Predictions: a continuous review

Florian Pappenberger

Education Professional Experience Research interests Publications Conference Presentations Awards and Services Projects HEPS

Ensemble flood forecasting: a review

In 2009, Hannah Cloke and Florian Pappenberger published a review of "Ensemble Flood Forecasting" in the Journal of Hydrology. This webpage attempts to provide an up-to-date reference list since the publication of this review. Please, do not hesitate to contact me, if you feel that your publication or achievement is missing.

THORPEX/HEPEX HYDROLOGICAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (THEPS)

THEPS is a project which integrates NWP EPS predictions and hydrological forecasting. For more detail see Project webpage.

Additional Publications in Ensemble Flood Forecasting

Schaake, J., Pailleux, J., Arritt, R., Hamill, T., Luo, L., Martin, E/. McCollor, D., Pappenberger, F., 2010 Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 15-18 June 2009, Atmospheric Science Letters, 11(2), 59-63 [special issue]

Herra, H.D. and Krzysztofowicz., R., Bayesian ensemble forecast of river stages and ensemble size requirements, Journal of Hydrology, 387 (3-4) , 151-164 doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.024

Renner, M., Werner, M.G.F., Rademacher, S., Sprokkereef, E., 2010, Verification of ensemble flow forecasts for the River Rhine, Journal of Hydrology, 376, (3-4), 463-475.

Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Kalas, M., 2008, Forecasting medium-range flood hazard on European scale , Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 2:4,179

Nobert S, Demeritt D, Cloke HL, 2010, Using Ensemble Predictions for operational flood forecasting: Lessons from Sweden Journal of Flood Risk Management,  3(1), 72-79

Xu JW, Zhang WC. 2009. Coupling XXT Hydrological Model with GRAPES or Flood Prediction Based on TIGGE Data, Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TTISS), Monterey, California, 14-18 September 2009

Zhang WC, Xu JW, Liu YH, Chen JF, Shao YH, Yan ZW. 2009. A Watershed Level Early Flood Warning Approach by Using Grand-ensemble Weather Predictions: Verification and Application for a Case Study in the Linyi Watershed, Shangdong, China, Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TTISS), Monterey, California, 14-18 September 2009

Burger, G., D. Reusser, and D. Kneis (2009), Early flood warnings from empirical (expanded) downscaling of the full ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10443, doi:10.1029/2009WR007779.

J. A. Velázquez, T. Petit, A. Lavoie, M.-A. Boucher, R. Turcotte, V. Fortin, and F. Anctiluntitled, 2009, An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting, HESS, 2009, Vol.13, pp. 2221-2231

Hou, D., K. Mitchell, Z. Toth, D. Lohmann, and H. Wei, 2009: The Effect of Large-Scale Atmospheric Uncertainty on Streamflow Predictability. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 717–733.

Brown, J.D., Demargne, J.,Seo, D-J, Liu, Y., 2010, The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): A software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations, Environmental Modelling & Software, 25(7), 854-872

Herr H.D. and Krzysztofowicz, R. Bayesian ensemble forecast of river stages and ensemble size requirements, Journal of Hydrology, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 4 March 2010

Current Operational Systems, which use meterological ensembles as inputs (operational and pre-operational)*

* please be aware that many organisation do not publish HEPS in the public domain

Current Projects in which I am involved to this topic can be found on the Projects Webpage