Hydrological Ensemble Predictions: a continuous review

Florian Pappenberger

Education Professional Experience Research interests Publications Conference Presentations Awards and Services Projects HEPS

Ensemble flood forecasting: a review

In 2009, Hannah Cloke and Florian Pappenberger published a review of "Ensemble Flood Forecasting" in the Journal of Hydrology. This webpage attempts to provide an up-to-date reference list since the publication of this review. Please, do not hesitate to contact me, if you feel that your publication or achievement is missing.

THORPEX/HEPEX HYDROLOGICAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (THEPS)

THEPS is a project which integrates NWP EPS predictions and hydrological forecasting. For more detail see Project webpage.

Additional Publications in Ensemble Flood Forecasting

- please note that my own papers to this topic can be found here -

Silvestro, Francesco, Nicola Rebora, Luca Ferraris, 2011: Quantitative Flood Forecasting on Small- and Medium-Sized Basins: A Probabilistic Approach for Operational Purposes. J. Hydrometeor, 12, 1432–1446. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05022.1

Silvestro, F., Gabellani, S., Giannoni, F., Parodi, A., Rebora, N., Rudari, R., and Siccardi, F.: A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2743-2752, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-2743-2012, 2012.

Gaborit, E., Anctil, F., Fortin, V., Pelletier, G., in press, On the reliability of spatially disaggregated global ensemble rainfall forecasts, Hydrological Processes, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9509

Silvestro, F. and Rebora, N.: Operational verification of a framework for the probabilistic nowcasting of river discharge in small and medium size basins, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 763-776, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-763-2012, 2012

Han, JR; Ye, Q; Yan, ZW; Jiao, MY; Xia, JJ, 2011, Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems, Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering in China
Volume 5, Number 4 (2011), 533-542, DOI: 10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6

Xu, JW; Zhang, WC; Zheng, ZY; Jiao, MY; Chen, J, 2012, Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data,
ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 26 (1):103-111; 10.1007/s13351-012-0110-7 FEB 2012

Zhao, LN; Qi, D; Tian, FY; Wu, H; Di, JY; Wang, Z; Li, AH, 2012, Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 26 (1):62-71; 10.1007/s13351-012-0106-3 FEB 2012

Bao, HJ; Zhao, LN, 2012, Development and Application of an Atmospheric-Hydrologic-Hydraulic Flood Forecasting Model Driven by TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 26 (1):93-102; 10.1007/s13351-012-0109-0 FEB 2012

He, M, Hogue, TS, Margulis, SA, Franz, KJ, 2012, An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions, 16 (3), 1027-5606, 10.5194/hess-16-815-2012

Pagano, T.C., Lal Shrestha, D., Wang, Q.J., Robertson, D., Hapuarachchi, P. Ensemble dressing for hydrological applications, Hydrological processes, acccepted, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9313

Boucher, M.-A. , Tremblay, D., Delorme, L., Perreault, L., Anctil, F., Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems, Journal of Hydrology, Volumes 416-417, 24 January 2012, Pages 133-144, ISSN 0022-1694, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.042.

Morawietz, M; Xu, CY; Gottschalk, L; Tallaksen, LM, Systematic evaluation of autoregressive error models as post-processors for a probabilistic streamflow forecast system, Journal of Hydrology 407 (1-4): 58-72 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.007 SEP 15 2011

Fundel F, Zappa M. 2011. Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting in Mesoscale Catchments: Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Value of Reforecasts. Water Resour. Res., 47, W09520, doi:10.1029/2010WR009996.

Addor, N., Jaun, S., Fundel, F., and Zappa, M.: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327-2347, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011, 2011.

Vincendon, B., Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., and Vié, B. 2011, Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1529-1544, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-1529-2011, 2011

Rossa A, Liechti K, Zappa M, Bruen M, Germann U, Haase G, Keil C, Krahe P. 2011. The COST 731 action: a review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Atmospheric Research. . Thematic Issue on COST731. Volume 100, Issues 2-3,  150-167. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.016

Liguori, S., Rico-Ramirez, M.A., Schellart, A.N.A., Saul, A.J., Using probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts and NWP forecasts for flow prediction in urban catchments Original Research Article
Atmospheric Research, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 18 May 2011

Kumar, P., 2010, Typology of hydrologic predictability, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 47, No. null, W00H05

Wu, LM; Seo, DJ; Demargne, J; Brown, JD; Cong, SZ; Schaake, J, 2011, Generation of ensemble precipitation forecast from single-valued quantitative precipitation forecast for hydrologic ensemble prediction, Journal of Hydrology (3-4): 281-298

Getnet Y. M., 2011, Implications of medium-range numerical weather model output in hydrologic applications: Assessment of skill and economic value, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 400, Issues 3-4, 11 April 2011, Pages 448-464, ISSN 0022-1694, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.056.

Webster, PJ; Jian, J; Hopson, TM; Hoyos, CD; Agudelo, PA; Chang, HR; Curry, JA; Grossman, RL; Palmer, TN; Subbiah, AR, 2010, Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra floods in Bangladesh, Bulletin of the American Meterological Society 91 (11): 1493-U121

Addor, N., Jaun, S., and Zappa, M.: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 715-761, doi:10.5194/hessd-8-715-2011, 2011

Weijs, S. V., Schoups, G., and van de Giesen, N.: Why hydrological predictions should be evaluated using information theory, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2545-2558, doi:10.5194/hess-14-2545-2010, 2010

J. Frick, C. Hegg, Can end-users' flood management decision making be improved by information about forecast uncertainty?, Atmospheric Research, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 9 January 2011, ISSN 0169-8095, DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.006.

Thirel, G; Martin, E; Mahfouf, JF; Massart, S; Ricci, S; Regimbeau, F; Habets, F, A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France - Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14 (8): 1639-1653 2010

Thirel, G; Martin, E; Mahfouf, JF; Massart, S; Ricci, S; Regimbeau, F; Habets, F, A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France - Part 1: Description and validation of the assimilation system, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1623-1637, 2010

Kok, C.J., B.G.J. Wichers Schreur and D.H.P. Vogelezang, Meteorological support for anticipatory water management, accepted, Atmospheric Research, 2010

Schaake, J., Pailleux, J., Arritt, R., Hamill, T., Luo, L., Martin, E/. McCollor, D., Pappenberger, F., 2010 Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 15-18 June 2009, Atmospheric Science Letters, 11(2), 59-63 [special issue]

Herra, H.D. and Krzysztofowicz., R., Bayesian ensemble forecast of river stages and ensemble size requirements, Journal of Hydrology, 387 (3-4) , 151-164 doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.024

Renner, M., Werner, M.G.F., Rademacher, S., Sprokkereef, E., 2010, Verification of ensemble flow forecasts for the River Rhine, Journal of Hydrology, 376, (3-4), 463-475.

Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Kalas, M., 2008, Forecasting medium-range flood hazard on European scale , Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 2:4,179

Nobert S, Demeritt D, Cloke HL, 2010, Using Ensemble Predictions for operational flood forecasting: Lessons from Sweden Journal of Flood Risk Management,  3(1), 72-79

Xu JW, Zhang WC. 2009. Coupling XXT Hydrological Model with GRAPES or Flood Prediction Based on TIGGE Data, Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TTISS), Monterey, California, 14-18 September 2009

Zhang WC, Xu JW, Liu YH, Chen JF, Shao YH, Yan ZW. 2009. A Watershed Level Early Flood Warning Approach by Using Grand-ensemble Weather Predictions: Verification and Application for a Case Study in the Linyi Watershed, Shangdong, China, Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TTISS), Monterey, California, 14-18 September 2009

Burger, G., D. Reusser, and D. Kneis (2009), Early flood warnings from empirical (expanded) downscaling of the full ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10443, doi:10.1029/2009WR007779.

J. A. Velázquez, T. Petit, A. Lavoie, M.-A. Boucher, R. Turcotte, V. Fortin, and F. Anctiluntitled, 2009, An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting, HESS, 2009, Vol.13, pp. 2221-2231

Hou, D., K. Mitchell, Z. Toth, D. Lohmann, and H. Wei, 2009: The Effect of Large-Scale Atmospheric Uncertainty on Streamflow Predictability. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 717–733.

Brown, J.D., Demargne, J.,Seo, D-J, Liu, Y., 2010, The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): A software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations, Environmental Modelling & Software, 25(7), 854-872

Herr H.D. and Krzysztofowicz, R. Bayesian ensemble forecast of river stages and ensemble size requirements, Journal of Hydrology, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 4 March 2010

Current Operational Systems, which use meterological ensembles as inputs (operational and pre-operational)*

* please be aware that many organisation do not publish HEPS in the public domain

Current Projects in which I am involved to this topic can be found on the Projects Webpage