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Home > Services > Dissemination > 3.1 > Meteorological Bulletin M3.1 > High Resolution Atmospheric Model Products > Products in BUFR code > 
Meteorological Bulletin M3.1 Meteorological Bulletin M3.1  
   

Meteorological Bulletin M3.1

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WEATHER PARAMETER products
WEATHER PARAMETER requirements
BUFR definition for T1279 WEATHER PARAMETER products
TROPICAL CYCLONE trajectory forecast products
TROPICAL CYCLONE trajectory forecast requirements
BUFR definition for TROPICAL CYCLONE trajectory forecast products
 
 

TROPICAL CYCLONE trajectory forecast products

The ECMWF Tropical cyclone forecast products are designed to provide both high resolution and probabilistic information on movement and intensity of individual tropical cyclones. The system is vitally dependent on observations from various tropical cyclone centres around the world. In other words, the TC forecasts does not take genesis into account - TCs can however die in the process if they are not forecasted to stay strong enough.

 

Once observations are available, the movement of a TC is automatically tracked, both in the high resolution and the ENS forecasts. The tracking algorithm is based on extrapolation of past movement and the mid-tropospheric steering flow to obtain a first guess position. The actual position is determined by searching for MSLP and 850 hPa vorticity extremes around the first guess position. Also thickness maximum, wind speed and orography are evaluated. More details can be found in the following Tech. Memo http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/102.pdf. Tropical cyclone products are presented in the FM 94-IX Ext. BUFR binary representation.

Tropical Cyclone products are disseminated separately from other high resolution forecast products and have their own dissemination schedule (Table 4.12 below).




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