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Home > Services > Dissemination > 3.1 > Meteorological Bulletin M3.1 > Ensemble Prediction System > 
 TUBE products  EPS Weather Parameter products  
   

Extreme forecast index data

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Transmission of EPS products
 
 

The Extreme Forecast Index measures how far away from the model climate distribution the EPS forecast distribution is (the EPS Control is treated as a single member distribution). It scales from -1 (all members reach unprecedented small values) to +1 (all members reach unprecedented large values). See ECMWF Tech. Memo 373 (July 2002) or QJRMS, 2003 pp3037-3058 for more details (http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/ecpublications/_pdf/tm373.pdf). Compared to these last two references, it should be noted that a more selective definition (order=0 or Anderson-Darling metrics) has been introduced in line with the presentation given at the Users meeting in June 2003 (see "Product Development" Slides 4 to 11 at http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/inspect/catalog/publications/slides/mru/2003/ec/ProductDevelopmentFLalaurette!4/".

 

Parameters available in dissemination are listed in the Table 5.9.1.

 

    • Table 5.9.1 (ECMWF Local Code Table 2, parameter table, Version Number 132)

    FIELD CODE

    MARS ABBREV.

    FIELD NAME

    UNITS

    NO. OF BITS/VAL.

    165

    10WSI

    Ten metre wind speed index

    -1 - 1

    12

    167

    2TI

    2 metre temperature index

    -1 - 1

    12

    49

    10FGI

    Wind gust at 10 meters index

    -1 - 1

    12

    228

    TPI

    Total precipitation index

    -1 - 1

    12

     

    Time step range at which these parameters are made available differ for 00 UTC based and 12 UTC based products. For 00 UTC based products. See 5.9.1 bellow for more details. Please note that the STEP value in the form 'value1-value2' represents a product for a time range 'value1 to value2' and is made available in dissemination at 'value2' time step.

     

    Horizontal resolution:

     

    - 0.25 x 0.25 degrees latitude-longitude grid, or multiples thereof (leg 1)

    - 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude-longitude grid, or multiples thereof (leg 2)

    - the Gaussian grid appropriate to the forecast model in use. The following Gaussian grid numbers are supported: 320, 200, 160, 128, 80, 48 and 32.

    - any sub-area

    Extreme forecast index requirements

    The following command language parameters are specific for the Extreme forecast index requirements. Other parameters are listed under the general EPS requirements above.

     

    TYPE

    =

    EXTREME FORECAST INDEX

    EXTREME FORECAST INDEX CONTROL

    [EFI]

    [EFIC]

    DOMAIN

    =

    GLOBAL

    [G]

    NUMBER

    =

    OFF

    PARAM

     

     

     

    =

     

     

     

    WIND GUST AT 10 METRES INDEX

    TOTAL PRECIPITATION INDEX

    10 METRE WIND SPEED INDEX

    2 METRE TEMPERATURE INDEX

    [10FGI]

    [TPI]

    [10WSI]

    [2TI]

    LEVTYPE

     

    =

     

    SURFACE

    [SFC]

     

    LEVELIST

    =

    OFF

    GRID

     

     

     

     

    =

     

     

     

     

    *

    */*

    AUTOMATIC [AUTO]

     

    If the form a/b is used, a latitude-longitude grid is defined, where:

    a= grid resolution (deg.) along a latitude line (i.e. East/West)

    b= grid resolution (deg.) along a longitude line (i.e. North/South)

     

    0.25/0.25 or multiples thereof; (leg 1)

    0.5/0.5 or multiples thereof; (leg 2)

    If a single positive integer is coded, it is interpreted as Gaussian grid number for grids defined as GAUSSIAN=REDUCED or REGULAR. The following Gaussian grid numbers are supported:320, 200, 160, 128, 80, 48 and 32.

    AUTOMATIC - values for the parameter GRID will be defined automatically based on STREAM/DOMAIN as well as RESOL/ GAUSSIAN parameter values;

    STEP

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    =

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * (hours)

    when TIME=00

    12/36/60/84/108

    12/36/60/84/108

    24/24-48/48-72/72-96/96-120

    6-30/30-54/54-78/78-102/102-126/6-126/

    30-150/240

     

    when TIME=12

    24/48/72/96/120

    24/48/72/96/120

    12-36/36-60/60-84/84-108/108-132

    18-42/42-66/66-90/90-114/114-138/

    18-138/42-162

     

    (PARAM=10WSI)

    (PARAM=2TI)

    (PARAM=10FGI)

    (PARAM=TPI)

     

     

     

    (PARAM=10WSI)

    (PARAM=2TI)

    (PARAM=10FGI)

    (PARAM=TPI)

     

    NB ALL is not permitted.

    
    

    GRIB section 1 definition for Extreme forecast index data

    'ECMWF local code table 2' version number used for EFI/EFIC products is 132.

     

      • Table 5.9.2 GRIB section 1 definition for EFI/EFIC products

      Octet

      Ksec1

      element

      Contents

      41

       

      37

       

      ECMWF local GRIB use definition identifier.

      19 = Extreme forecast index data

      42

       

      43

       

       

      44-45

       

      46-49

      38

       

      39

       

       

      40

       

      41

      Class:

      1 = Operations

      Type:

      27 = extreme forecast index

      28 = extreme forecast index control

      Stream:

      1035 = Ensemble forecasts

      Version number or experiment identifier.

      (4 ASCII characters, right justified)

      50

       

      51

      42

       

      43

      Zero, for compatibility with Mars labelling

       

      Ensemble size

      52

       

      53-56

       

       

      57-59

       

      60-62

       

      63-65

       

      66-68

       

      69

      70-80

      44

       

      45

       

       

      46

       

      47

       

      48

       

      49

       

      50

      -

      Power of 10 used to scale climate weight = F, say

       

      Weight*10**F applied to climate month 1, stored as an integer

       

      First month used to build climate month 1, YYYYMM

      Last month used to build climate month 1, YYYYMM

      First month used to build climate month 2, YYYYMM

      Last month used to build climate month 2, YYYYMM

      EFI order

      Set to zero




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