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Home > Services > Dissemination > 3.1 > Meteorological Bulletin M3.1 > Ensemble Prediction System > 
 Cluster Mean and Cluster Standard Deviation products  Event Probability products  
   

Ensemble Mean and Ensemble Standard Deviation products

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The mean and standard deviation from the full set of 51 forecast (i.e. the 50 perturbed forecasts plus the control forecast) are computed for temperature at pressure level 850 and 500hPa and geopotential on pressure level 1000 and 500hPa.

 

Horizontal resolution

 

- 0.25 x 0.25 degrees latitude-longitude grid, or multiples thereof (leg 1)

- 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude-longitude grid, or multiples thereof (leg 2)

- the Gaussian grid appropriate to the forecast model in use. The following Gaussian grid numbers are supported: 320, 200, 160, 128, 80, 48 and 32 (320 and 200 only for VarEPS leg 1 data).

- any sub-area

 

Verifying times

 

- T+3 to T+144 (inclusive) at 3 hour intervals and T+144 to T+360 at 6 hour intervals

Ensemble Mean and Ensemble Standard Deviation requirements

The following command language parameters are specific for the ensemble mean and ensemble standard deviation requirements. Other DIS parameters are listed under the general Monthly Forecast requirements above.

 

 

TYPE

 

=

 

ENSEMBLE MEAN

ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATION

[EM]]

[ES]

DOMAIN

=

GLOBAL

[G]

NUMBER

=

OFF

LEVTYPE

=

PRESSURE LEVEL

[PL]

 

LEVELIST

 

=

 

1000/500

850/500

(PARAM=Z only)

(PARAM=T only)

GRID

 

 

 

 

=

 

 

 

 

*

*/*

AUTOMATIC [AUTO]

 

If the form a/b is used, a latitude-longitude grid is defined, where:

a= grid resolution (deg.) along a latitude line (i.e. East/West)

b= grid resolution (deg.) along a longitude line (i.e. North/South)

 

0.5/0.5 or multiples thereof;

If a single positive integer is coded, it is interpreted as Gaussian grid number for grids defined as GAUSSIAN=REDUCED or REGULAR. The following Gaussian grid numbers are supported: 200, 160, 128, 80, 48 and 32 (200 and 160 only for VarEPS leg 1 data);

AUTOMATIC - values for the parameter GRID will be defined automatically based on STREAM/DOMAIN as well as RESOL/ GAUSSIAN parameter values;

STEP

 

 

 

=

 

 

 

* (hours)

l gives forecast time step(s);

3/to/144/by/3 and 144/to/360/by/6

NB ALL, is not permitted.

PARAM

 

 

 

=

 

 

 

Field name abbreviation

*

NB ALL is not permitted.

Available parameters are listed in the Table 5.3.


GRIB section 1 definition for Ensemble Mean and Ensemble Standard Deviation products

By convention, ECMWF always uses octet 41 to define which set of local definitions follow. For these products local definition 30 (as described above) is used with the exception of octets 43 and 50:

 

    • Table 5.5 GRIB section 1 definition for Ensemble Mean and Ensemble Standard Deviation products

    Octet

    Ksec1

    element

    Contents

    43

     

     

     

    39

     

     

     

    Type:

    17 = Ensemble means

    18 = Ensemble standard deviations

     

    50

     

     

     

     

     

    51

     

    42

     

     

     

     

     

    43

     

    When element 39 = 17, this is an ensemble mean and

    the number is set to 0.

     

    When element 39 = 18, this is an ensemble standard

    deviation and the number is set to 0.

     

    The total number of forecasts in an ensemble; the

    number includes the control forecast.




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