Predictability and ensemble forecasting

Despite the increasing accuracy of weather forecasts, there is still an element of uncertainty in all predictions. Since 1992, ECMWF's pioneering ensemble prediction system has provided a growing range of new products to help forecasters deal scientifically and quantitatively with the day to day variations in the predictability of the atmosphere. There is now a substantial research effort devoted to the assessment of predictability on the monthly and seasonal timescales.

• Introduction to chaos and predictability
• Predictability and ensemble forecast research at ECMWF
• Recent developments in predictability at ECMWF
• ECMWF Publications on predictability and ensemble forecasting
• Adaptive observation research at ECMWF