DEMETER has been funded by the European Union for the period
April 2000-September 2003. The goals, schedule and work program as described
in the EU proposal can be downloaded here.
The web addresses of the 12 partners of the project can be found here.
Seven comprehensive European global coupled
atmosphere-ocean models are being installed at ECMWF. The use of
a multi-model ensemble system allows for uncertainties in model formulation
to be included in the estimation of seasonal forecast probabilities.
Based on evidence from the earlier Fourth Framework project PROVOST,
it is believed that such a multi-model system will produce the most
reliable seasonal climate forecasts possible. The DEMETER system
will be fully tested on past cases using the ERA-40
database for initial and validation data.
An extensive set of 6-monthly hindcast ensemble integrations will be
generated using the DEMETER system. These will be run four times
a year over a period of about 40 years. Each model will produce nine
members of the multi-model ensemble. Output from the individual members
of the multi-model ensemble will be linked with tropical
disease prediction models and European crop-yield models. Sensitivity
and downscaling studies will also be undertaken.
In order to combine ensemble members from models with different systematic-error
characteristics, it is desirable to apply a model correction technique
to each individual-model ensemble. Datasets containing corrected multi-model
ensembles will be produced. The sensitivity of the coupled-model simulations
to the inclusion of satellite altimeter data, to changes in the model
parametrizations, and to the use of persisted sea surface temperature
anomalies will be investigated. The feasibility of applying the DEMETER
output to scales smaller than can be resolved by the global models will
also be assessed.
Selected variables from the project are available online in order to
make them available to the world scientific community.