Manuscripts on the s2d Stream 2 in Preparation by the ENSEMBLES Partners

The Stream 2 experiment is being documented with the following manuscripts. The list below briefly describes the goal of the manuscript and the lead author. Please, contact that person if you plan to perform a similar study with the data publicly available.

• Assessment of the ENSO characteristics in the ENSEMBLES Stream 2 seasonal/annual multi-model hindcasts and comparison with the equivalent period in the DEMETER experiment. This paper documents the different participating models in the experiment and the data dissemination service.
  Weisheimer, A., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra and P. Rogel (2009), ENSEMBLES - a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896. open access

• Comparison of the ENSO forecast quality in the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES seasonal hindcasts using the discrimination method.
  Alessandri, A., A. Borrelli, A. Navarra, A. Aribas, M. Deque, P. Rogel and A. Weisheimer (2011). Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts: comparison with DEMETER. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139(2), 581-607, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3417.1.

• Description of the ENSEMBLES decadal multi-model and perturbed-parameter experiments over the common period 1960-2005, with one hindcast every five years. This paper is expected to document the participating models in the experiment (lead James Murphy).

• Comparison of the seasonal predictions of the multi-model and perturbed-parameter ensembles in terms of forecast quality (lead Francisco Doblas-Reyes).

• Impact of the initialization in decadal predictions, with a focus on the DePreSys hindcasts (lead Doug Smith).

• Analysis of the processes at the origin of the tropical biases in seasonal and decadal forecasts (lead Noel Keenlyside).

• Assessment of the skill of probability forecasts of seasonal frequencies of daily events in a multi-model context (lead Michel Déqué).

• Computation of autumn weather regimes over the Mediterranean region with the seasonal hindcasts of the Meteo-France system (lead Jean-François Guérémy).

• Analysis of the decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES ocean analyses (lead Philippe Rogel).

• Assessment of the impact of the initialization in the HadGEM2 decadal forecasts (lead Alberto Arribas).

• Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the ENSO errors in coupled GCMs (lead Eric Guilyardi, IPSL/LOCEAN).

• Seasonal prediction of tropical storm statistics in the ENSEMBLES multi-model (lead Frederic Vitart, ECMWF)