ENSEMBLES RT1: Results: Plots of seasonal-to-annual simulations

Deterministic skill assessment of the stream1 (1991-2001) hindcasts

• Single-model vs multi-model ensembles

ensemble mean RMSE, ensemble spread and anomaly correlations for different oceanic regions:

• May start dates (7 months hindcasts), SST and precipitation
• November start dates (14 month hindcasts), SST and precipitation

• Multi-model vs perturbed physics vs stochastic physics ensembles

model drift, ensemble mean RMSE, ensemble spread and anomaly correlations for different oceanic regions:

• May start dates (7 months hindcasts), SST
• May start dates (7 months hindcasts), precipitation
• November start dates (14 month hindcasts), SST
• November start dates (14 month hindcasts), precipitation

Probabilistic skill assessment of the stream1 (1991-2001) hindcasts

...will come soon...

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