ENSEMBLES is an EU-funded Integrated Project that intends to develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales.

This ensemble prediction system will be used to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air quality issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks).

In addition, the project will maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management.

The project is organised in Research Themes (RT). This web site contains information for RT1, which deals with the development of the first global, high resolution, fully comprehensive, ensemble based, modelling system for the prediction of climate change at different time scales, from seasons to decades and beyond.

RT1 is vitally linked to the other ENSEMBLES Research Themes, especially to RT2A "Production of seasonal-to-decadal hindcasts and climate change scenarios" and RT6 "Assessment of impacts and climate change".

Structure of this site:

RT1 General Information

Experimental set up

Table of experiments

Data archiving and dissemination

Downscaling and linkt to RT2B

Results

Meetings

Links

For more information about this web site, please contact Paco Doblas-Reyes or Antje Weisheimer .

18.07.2012