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Home > Research > EU Projects > ENSEMBLES > General Info > Deliverables and Milestones >     
 
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Research Theme (RT) webpages: RT1 | RT2A | RT2B | RT3 | RT4 | RT5 | RT6 | RT7 | RT8

ENSEMBLES RT1: Deliverable and Milestone reports

 
 

Deliverables

  • Deliverable 1.1 (due month 12): Progress report on construction and testing of ESMs.
  • Deliverable 1.2 (due month 12): Systematic documentation and inter-comparison of ensemble perturbation and weighting methods.
  • Deliverable 1.3 (due month 18): Advanced ocean data assimilation systems, based on improved optimal interpolation, Ensemble Kalman Filter, and variational methods, developed in the ENACT project, adapted to the OGCMs to be used in the ENSEMBLES system.
  • Deliverable 1.4 (due month 18): A new multi-model coupled model ensemble system for seasonal to decadal forecasts will be created and installed at ECMWF, with capabilities to run, in addition, perturbed parametrizations, and stochastic physics.
  • Deliverable 1.5 (due month 21): WP1.1 workshop
  • Deliverable 1.6 (due month 24): Report on the developed and tested ESMs.
  • Deliverable 1.7 (due month 24): Interim probability distribution of transient climate change over Europe will be produced, for use by other RTs in testing methodologies for prediction of climate change impacts
  • Deliverable 1.8 (due month 30): Updated assessment in terms of forecast quality and potential economic value of the relative merits of the multi-model approach, the perturbed parameter approach, and the stochastic physics approach, to representation of model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasts
  • Deliverable 1.13 (due month 42): Scientific report/paper documenting the seasonal hindcast skill of the most recent version of the stochastic physics scheme developed at ECMWF

Milestones

  • Milestone M1.1 (due month 18): Completion of the technical development needed to adapt the ENACT-based assimilation systems to the ENSEMBLES OGCMs (CERFACS), See also D1.3.
  • Milestone M1.2 (due month 18): Preliminary assessment of the relative merits of the multi-model approach, the perturbed parameter approach, and the stochastic physics approach, to representing model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasts. Recommendations to the ENSEMBLES project concerning the design of the production ensemble system (ECMWF)
  • Milestone M1.3 (due month 18): Preliminary assessment of the perturbed parameter approach to representing model uncertainty in centennial climate predictions. Recommendations to the ENSEMBLES project concerning the design of the production ensemble system (METO-HC)
  • Milestone M1.4 (due month 20, delivered month 29): Updated quality-controlled oceanographic database (METO-HC) see also http://www.hadobs.com, then click on EN3
  • Milestone M1.7 (due month 36): A workshop organized jointly with WGSIP (the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction) will be held in Barcelona on 4-8 June 2007 to gather scientists working on seasonal-to-decadal forecasting from different continents (ECMWF)
  • (interim) Milestone M1.8 (due month 48): Completion/status of the seasonal-to-decadal stream 2 simulations (ECMWF)

Major Milestones

  • MM1.1 (due month 24): Provision of a set of tested Earth System Models (MPI-MET)
  • MM1.2 (due month 24): Provision of a "first generation" ensemble prediction system (Version 1) for use in RT2 (ECMWF)

Related deliverables and milestones in other RTs:

  • Deliverable 2A.1.2 (due month 30): Design of a suitable strategy for the initialsiation of the decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2001 period (ECMWF)
  • Deliverable 2A.4.3 (due month 30): Preliminary version of the ECMWF public data server for dissemination of seasonal-to-decadal simulations (ECMWF)
  • Deliverable 5.3 (due month 18): Scientific article/report and R software on optimal statistical methods for combining multi-model forecasts to make probabilistic forecasts of rare extreme events (ECMWF)
  • Deliverable 5.7 (due month 18): Assessment of the skill of seasonal NAO and PNA using multi-model seasonal integrations from DEMETER (ECMWF)
  • M4.4.4 (due month 30): Assessment of the importance of including variable GHGs in seasonal forecasts/hindcasts to guide construction of the ENSEMBLES Stream 2 simulations (ECMWF)
  • Deliverable D5.19 (due month 36): Scientific paper on the impact of the underestimates of Northern Hemisphere blocking in seasonal and climate change predictions of European winter precipitation (ECMWF)

 


 

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