User Guide to ECMWF Forecast Products

• Introduction
• The ECMWF forecasting and assimilation system
• The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
• Recommendations on categorical and probabilistic medium-range forecasting
• Derived products from the EPS
• Epilogue: how to increase the public’s trust in medium-range weather forecasts
• Appendix A Some statistical concepts to facilitate the use and interpretation of deterministic medium-range forecasts
• Appendix B Some statistical concepts to facilitate the use and interpretation of ensemble forecasts
• References and further literature