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The "art" of weather
forecasting with the help of modern NWP systems is thus to combine
their high degree of realism and short-range accuracy, with the
pre-NWP convention of approaching climate for longer forecast
ranges. This is, as we will see in ch.9, most consistently
accomplished in the EPS system. However, relying only on forecasts
from deterministic models, it is possible to improve the accuracy
considerably:
-Use of the relation
between scale and predictability (8.3.1.)
-Use of spatial and/or
temporal smoothing (8.3.2.)
-Use of statistical
interpretation (ch. 10)
The result might not be
as accurate as when using the EPS, partly because the limited
number of "ensemble members" in the poor man's approach. However,
due to the coarser resolution in the EPS compared to the
operational TL511, the degree of geography related details might be
better described.
- Same as figure but
with the error growth of a an ensemble mean forecast included. It
incorporates the accuracy of the short range NWP with a convergence
toward the errors saturation level of a climate statement. A poor
man's ensemble mean is likely to lie between the red and blue
lines, dependent on the number of "ensemble members" and the
quality of the deterministic models.
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