Statistical post-processing – model output statistics

• The MOS equation
• Simultaneous corrections of mean error and variability
• Short-range MOS
• Medium-range MOS
• Adaptive MOS methods

An efficient way to improve the ensemble forecast, both the EM and the probabilities, is by statistical post-processing (SPP), which is an advanced form of calibration of the output from the deterministic ensemble members. The most commonly used SPP method is “model output statistics” (MOS).