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User Guide to ECMWF Forecast Products > 
Preface  The history of NWP  
   

Presentation of ECMWF

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Preface
Presentation of ECMWF
The ECMWF global atmospheric model
The data assimilation system
Why do forecasts go wrong?
The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
The forecast products
The verification of ECMWF forecasts
The deterministic use of ECMWF forecasts
The use of the Ensemble Prediction forecasts
Comments on the use of statistical interpretation
Forecasts beyond ten days
Epilogue
References and further literature
Appendix A: 4DVAR - an elementary introduction
Appendix B: The mathematics of forecast errors
Appendix C: The Brier Score
 
 

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is the result of more than 100 years of development in dynamic and synoptic meteorology and more than fifty years of development in numerical weather prediction (NWP). This long period has seen times of optimism vary with pessimism, during which a slow but steady improvement of the quality of weather forecasts has been made.




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