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The numerous
meteorological parameters which are produced by the medium range
forecast system do not seem to need any "interpretation". Time
series of the forecast temperature, cloud cover, wind, rain etc.
presented graphically for a specific location ("meteogram"), can be
read off by meteorologists as well as laymen. However, care must be
observed in dealing with direct model output. The figure below
shows two consecutive forecasts of the 2 meter temperature for a
location in the Netherlands.
- The forecast 2-meter
temperature forecast for Volkel in the Netherlands in winter 1995
according to two consecutive ECMWF forecasts. They are 8° K
wrong 24 hours into the forecast and inconsistent during the second
half of the period.
-The last forecast
indicates a return to milder conditions a week into the forecast
whereas the forecast from the day before indicated continued cold
conditions. Does this indicate that today's forecast is less
reliable? A further potential problem might be that the temperature
on the first day does not correspond with the forecast. Does this
mean that the rest of the forecast can be trusted?
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