Decision making from meteorological information

• The cost-loss ratio
• A simple cost-loss example
• The importance of weather forecasts
• Probabilities as a way to compete
• When weather forecasts do not matter
• Limitation of the cost-loss model
• The human "irrationality"

Ultimately the motivation for weather forecasts are the guidance they give in decision makings, their utility. A forecast system that provides good scores normally also provide good guidance for a wide range of needs. But there are exceptions. A forecast system that over-forecasts the occurrence of rain will score badly, but will be very useful for anyone who is sensitive for rain. Our intuitive sense of "usefulness" can to some degree be mathematically modelled.