User Guide to ECMWF Forecast Products

• Preface
• Presentation of ECMWF
• The ECMWF global atmospheric model
• The data assimilation system
• Why do forecasts go wrong?
• The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
• The forecast products
• The verification of ECMWF forecasts
• The deterministic use of ECMWF forecasts
• The use of the Ensemble Prediction forecasts
• Comments on the use of statistical interpretation
• Forecasts beyond ten days
• Epilogue
• References and further literature
• Appendix A: 4DVAR - an elementary introduction
• Appendix B: The mathematics of forecast errors
• Appendix C: The Brier Score