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The Workshop on Ensemble prediction was held from 7 to 9 November 2007.
This workshop aimed to review the most recent advances in ensemble
techniques applied to data-assimilation and forecast systems for predictions ranging from days, through months and seasons, to multi-annual timescales.
Topics discussed during the workshop include:
- Representation of initial uncertainties (ensemble data assimilation, ensemble transform Kalman filter, bred vectors, singular vectors etc);
- Representation of model uncertainties (multi-model ensembles, perturbed parameter ensembles, stochastic parametrisation etc);
- Validation and calibration methods;
- Applications of ensemble forecasts.
Results of both theoretical and practical research, using both global and limited area models, will be included in the presentations. Lessons drawn from intercomparisons of results on different timescales, as encouraged in the World Climate Research Programme's Strategic Framework on seamless prediction, will be a focus of discussion at the workshop.
Working Group Reports
During the workshop, three working groups have been discussing key topics of ensemble prediction. Their final report can be accessed hereafter:
Workshop attendance is by invitation only.
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