Subject
A Workshop on the Role of the upper ocean in medium and extended range
forecasting was held at ECMWF on 13 to 15 November 2002.
The ocean plays an important role in seasonal forecasting. The best known
process is El Nino with its origins in the tropical Pacific where air-sea
interaction is strong, but there is evidence emerging of partly predictable
phenomena in the Atlantic and Indian oceans also. At shorter time scales,
ocean-atmosphere interaction may be important in for example tropical
storm prediction and the intraseasonal oscillation. With developments
in the ocean observation system and in data assimilation and modelling,
the potential for making and using upper ocean forecasts has improved
substantially.
This meeting covered 4 main themes:
- Discussion of significant phenomena which involve air/sea coupling
on the timescales from hours to months.
- The use of ocean forecasts on these timescales.
- New methods of observing the ocean and challenges in assimilating
data in ocean models.
- Recent advances in ocean and ice modelling and requirements for further
progress.
A report of the workshop will be published by ECMWF.
Programme
and Presentations
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