In the past decade, ensemble-based, probabilistic seasonal forecasts have become more accurate and reliable, building on the continuous improvements of coupled atmosphere and ocean modelling, and on advances in the simulation of initial and model uncertainties. Seasonal prediction systems are now part of routine operational suites at leading numerical weather prediction centres, and seasonal forecasts are increasingly used in a range of applications to improve weather-associated risk management (e.g. to prevent losses due to severe flood and drought conditions, and to prepare for health-related emergencies).

The seminar will give a pedagogical review of the principles behind seasonal predictions. Recent scientific developments in probabilistic, coupled seasonal prediction will also be reviewed, and the value of seasonal prediction in weather-risk reduction will be discussed.

List of speakers and programme

Programme

List of speakers

Oscar Alves (CAWCR, Australia)
Dave Anderson (UK)
Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)
Peter Bechtold (ECMWF)
Cecilia Bitz (Univ Washington, USA)
Christophe Cassou (CNRS Toulouse, France)
Caio Coelho (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil)
Arnaud Czaja (Imperial College, UK)
Laurent Dubus (EDF, France)
Annica Ekman (Stockholm Univ, Sweden)
Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
Sulochana Gadgil (Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore, India)
Richard Graham (Met Office, UK)
Michel Jarraud (WMO)
Hyemi Kim (Georgia Tech, USA)
Simon Mason (IRI, USA)
Franco Molteni (ECMWF)
Tim Palmer (ECMWF/Oxford Univ, UK)
Suru Saha (NCEP, USA)
Adam Scaife (UK MetOffice, UK)
Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
Yuhei Takaya (JMA, Japan)
Jin-Ho Yoo (APCC, Korea)

Useful information on ECMWF web site:

Organisers and contact information

The organizers of the seminar are Roberto Buizza, Laura Ferranti, Franco Molteni and Tim Stockdale.

Administrative assistance is provided by Els Kooij-Connally.

If you have any queries please contact us.

04.09.2012