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Seminar on Predictability in the European and Atlantic regions from days to years,
6 - 9 September 2010
Every year ECMWF organizes a seminar with a pedagogical objective, whereby a selected topic related to numerical weather prediction is highlighted. The proposed subject of the seminar this year is
Predictability in the European and Atlantic regions from days to years, and will be held from 6 to 9 September 2010.
The Atlantic-European region is recognized as a part of the world where the natural, internal variability of the atmosphere tends to dominate over boundary-forced signals. Despite the noticeable improvements of NWP models in predicting phemomena such as Mediterranean storms and European blocking, the prediction of some extreme manifestations of these events remains challenging. Furthermore, extended-range and seasonal forecasts for this region remain a very difficult task. Although this can be partially attributed to an intrinsic limit in predictability, there is increasing evidence of the potential arising from a better simulation of phenomena such as MJO teleconnections, stratosphere-troposphere interactions and sea-ice variability. This potential might be realized through improved physical parameterizations that would also take into account their inherent uncertainty. On the longer time scale, skilful simulations of teleconnections with tropical Atlantic SST may be achieved by a better representation of tropical Atlantic Ocean variability in coupled models.
The seminar will review recent progress in predicting Euro-Atlantic variability on a variety of scales, with emphasis on the links between different regions and various components of the weather/climate system.
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