ECMWF Annual Seminar

The one week seminar on Predictability of Weather and Climate was held from 9 to 13 September 2002.

The purpose of the Seminar was to give a pedagogical overview of current issues in predictability studies for both the mid-latitudes and the tropics, and on a wide range of time scales from short-range through medium-range to seasonal time-scales and beyond.

In addition to theoretical presentations, there were thorough discussion of the methodology of ensemble predictions, including the choices available in formulating the initial perturbations, and the choices available in dealing with uncertainties in model formulation. Verification issues were also be discussed.

Recent developments in data assimilation of relevance to ensemble forecasting were presented, including the implementation of physics in 4D-Var and in singular vector calculations, and the development of a reduced rank Kalman filter.

Proceedings