This project has ended |
2011 - 2013

Knowledge-based approach to develop a culture of risk prevention (KULTURisk)

The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages. The KULTURisk project aims at developing a culture of risk prevention by means of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of prevention measures. The development of a culture of risk prevention requires the improvement of our

  • memory and knowledge of past disasters
  • communication and understanding capacity of current and future hazards
  • awareness of risk
  • preparedness for future events.

In order to demonstrate the advantages of prevention options, an original methodology will be developed, applied and validated using specific European case studies, including transboundary areas. The benefits of state-of-the-art prevention measures, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural initiatives, will be demonstrated. In particular, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, will be highlighted. Furthermore, the outcomes of the project will be used to efficiently educate the public and train professionals in risk prevention.

KULTURisk will first focus on water-related hazards as the likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related catastrophes might increase in the near future because of land-use and/or climate changes. In particular, a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales will be utilised. Finally, the applicability of the KULTURisk approach to different types of natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires) will also be analysed. More information can be found on the KULTURisk website.

Knowledge-based approach to develop a culture of risk prevention (KULTURisk)

The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages. The KULTURisk project aims at developing a culture of risk prevention by means of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of prevention measures. The development of a culture of risk prevention requires the improvement of our

  • memory and knowledge of past disasters
  • communication and understanding capacity of current and future hazards
  • awareness of risk
  • preparedness for future events.

In order to demonstrate the advantages of prevention options, an original methodology will be developed, applied and validated using specific European case studies, including transboundary areas. The benefits of state-of-the-art prevention measures, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural initiatives, will be demonstrated. In particular, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, will be highlighted. Furthermore, the outcomes of the project will be used to efficiently educate the public and train professionals in risk prevention.

KULTURisk will first focus on water-related hazards as the likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related catastrophes might increase in the near future because of land-use and/or climate changes. In particular, a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales will be utilised. Finally, the applicability of the KULTURisk approach to different types of natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires) will also be analysed. More information can be found on the KULTURisk website.

Key outcome for ECMWF

Forecast verification

Within KULTURisk one of the main tasks was to verify the hydrological forecasts using ECMWF’s deterministic and ensemble forecasts over Europe. Tools were developed and implemented for this purpose. It also showed the benefit of using probabilistic forecasts in decision making.

Development of EFAS

The European flood awareness system (EFAS) was the main tool used and developed within the project, and ECMWF is currently responsible for the computational part of the operational system. One of the main outcomes was a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of EFAS and this has initiated a number of implemented and planned improvements, such as continuous verification of the system, updating of calculation of return periods and a multimodel hydrological system.

Publications

Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Thielen, J., 2012. Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe. Environmental Science and Policy 21, 35–49, 2012

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

Alfieri, L, Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Neal, J., Bates, P., Feyen, L., (2013) Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping, Hydrol. Process., (published online), DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9947

Bogner, K., H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, A. De Roo, and J. Thielen, Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper Danube catchment. International Journal of River Basin Management, 10(1):1–12, 2012.

Bogner, K., H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, and M. Scheuerer (2013) Probabilistic Flood Forecast Combination and Integration in an Operational Predictive Uncertainty Processor. Journal of Hydrology, submitted (Special Issue on Ensemble prediction and data assimilation for operational hydrology and water resources management).

Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. and Pappenberger F. (2013) The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) and the communication, perception and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management Hydrological Processes, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9419, Volume 27, Issue 1, pages 147–157, 2013

Pappenberger F., Stephens E., Thielen J., Salamon P., Demeritt D., van Andel S. J., Wetterhall F., Alfieri L (2013) Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication, Hydrological Processes, Volume 27, Issue 1, pages 132–146, 2013

Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F., and Cloke, H. L.: Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4143-4156, doi:10.5194/hess-16-4143-2012, 2012.

Pappenberger, F. and Brown, J. D., 2013, HP today: on the pursuit of (im)perfection in flood forecasting. Hydrol. Process., 27: 162–163. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9465

Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Bogner, K., Alfieri, L, Cloke, H.L., 2013, Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale, Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology, Proceedings of H01, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013 (IAHS Publ. 359, 2013)

Ramos, M. H., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2219-2232, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013, 2013.

S.J. van Andel, A. Weerts, J. Schaake, and Bogner, K., 2013, Post-processing hydrological ensemble predictions intercomparison experiment, Hydrol. Process., Volume 27, Issue 1, pages 158–161, 2013.

Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Balabanova, S., Daňhelka, J., Vogelbacher, A., Salamon, P., Carrasco, I., Cabrera-Tordera, A. J., Corzo-Toscano, M., Garcia-Padilla, M., Garcia-Sanchez, R. J., Ardilouze, C., Jurela, S., Terek, B., Csik, A., Casey, J., Stankūnavičius, G., Ceres, V., Sprokkereef, E., Stam, J., Anghel, E., Vladikovic, D., Alionte Eklund, C., Hjerdt, N., Djerv, H., Holmberg, F., Nilsson, J., Nyström, K., Sušnik, M., Hazlinger, M., and Holubecka, M.: Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4389–4399, 2013.

 

The work of KULTURisk will not be directly followed by a new project, but it benefits and contributes to the development of EFAS.