This project has ended |
2004 - 2009

ENSEMBLES is an EU-funded Integrated Project that intends to develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales.

This ensemble prediction system will be used to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air quality issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks).

In addition, the project will maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management.

The project is organised in Research Themes (RT). This web site contains information for RT1, which deals with the development of the first global, high resolution, fully comprehensive, ensemble based, modelling system for the prediction of climate change at different time scales, from seasons to decades and beyond.

 

Project summary

ENSEMBLES was an EU-funded Integrated Project to develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales.

The project aimed at quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air quality issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks)

ENSEMBLES maximised the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management.

More than 70 partners from institutions across Europe contributed to the ENSEMBLES project. ECMWF's main involvement in the project was through Research Theme 1, which dealt with the development of the first global, high resolution, fully comprehensive, ensemble based, modelling system for the prediction of climate change at different time scales, from seasons to decades and beyond.