We operate a high-resolution forecasting system providing weather predictions up to 10 days ahead. It comprises a 4-dimensional variational data assimilation system (4D-Var), the high resolution global model and the 51 member Ensemble (ENS) at 30 km resolution. Information about forecasting systems and their products is provided in the User Guide. Performance statistics can be found under verification.

Please check the sections below to find out more about the forecast charts we provide from our medium-range high-resolution global model and the ENS system.

High resolution global model

The high-resolution forecast model runs twice a day. Plots show different parameters over the whole planet – normally split into six different geographical areas.

Charts of 10-day high-resolution forecasts of mean sea level pressure, wind speed and temperature at low levels, and of the height of the 500-hPa isobaric surface plots are available to the public.

Model simulated satellite images may be available slightly later then other high resolution forecast charts due to longer processing time.

ENS charts

Information and link to charts here with brief introduction (coming soon).

Charts of ensemble mean and spread for mean sea level pressure, wind speed and temperature at 850 hPa, and geopotential at 500 hPa are available to the public.

ENS probabilities

Forecast probabilities are computed from the 50 members of the Ensemble Prediction System for different parameters and relevant thresholds.

Extreme forecast index

The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI), Shift Of Tails (SOT) index, and maps of model climate quantiles are produced for forecasts up to 10 days ahead for 10-metre wind (daily mean), 10-metre wind gusts (daily maximum), 2-metre temperature (daily mean, minimum, maximum), precipitation (daily accumulations), snowfall, significant wave height.

EFI charts

An ‘anomalous weather’ chart summarises EFI information for wind, temperature and precipitation.

ENS clusters and ENS members (‘stamp maps’)

Show geopotential fields at 500/1000hPa from specific EPS members that represent best the cluster centroids. More information about this product is available here.

ENS plumes

Show a collection of curves for the high resolution, control and perturbed forecasts over the next ten days for 850 hPa temperature, total precipitations accumulated over 12 hours and 500 hPa geopotential in different locations in Europe. They are generated on lower ENS resolution and the nearest grid point data is used.

Tropical cyclone activity

Shows the potential tropical cyclone activity at different time ranges during the forecast. It includes both tropical cyclones that are present at analysis time and those which may develop during the forecast.

ENS meteograms

‘ENS meteograms’ are forecasts for a single place. The ENS meteogram page allows you to choose a place for the forecast and has information on how it is created.

Severe weather - the Extreme Forecast Index

The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed at ECMWF as a tool to provide forecasters with general initial guidance on potential extreme weather events. It is constructed specifically to highlight occasions when there is a significant shift in the current ENS towards the extreme of the model climate. The EFI is produced for a number of important weather parameters: 2 metre minimum,  maximum and mean temperatures, total precipitation, snowfall, wind gust and mean wind speed, and for maximum significant wave height.

The complementary Shift Of Tails (SOT) provides information about how extreme an event might be. Positive values of the SOT indicate that at least 10% of the ensemble members are above the 99th percentile of the model climate. The higher the SOT value is, the further this top 10% of the ensemble forecast is beyond the model climate.

References

Lalaurette F. 2002. Early detection of abnormal weather conditions using a probabilistic extreme forecast index. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 3037–3057.

Tsonevsky and Richardson, 2012. Application of the new EFI products to a case of early snowfall in Central Europe. ECMWF Newsletter 133, Autumn 2012.

Zsótér E. 2006. Recent developments in extreme weather forecasting. ECMWF Newsletter No.107: 8–17.

Zsoter, E., Pappenberger, F. and Richardson, D., 2014, Sensitivity of model climate to sampling configurations and the impact on the Extreme Forecast Index. Met. Apps. doi: 10.1002/met.1447

Dutra, E., Diamantakis, M., Tsonevsky, I., Zsoter, E., Wetterhall, F., Stockdale, T., Richardson, D. and Pappenberger, F., 2013, The extreme forecast index at the seasonal scale. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 14: 256–262. doi: 10.1002/asl2.448

Tropical cyclones

We have developed specialised products for tropical cyclone forecasts.

All tropical cyclones present at the initial time are tracked throughout the forecast. As well as the individual forecast tracks, products such as the strike probability maps summarise the evolution in HRES and ENS and highlight the uncertainty in the future position and intensity.

Additional products identify the potential for new tropical cyclones to develop during the forecast.

More information is available on the tropical cyclone page

Verification

Find out about how we monitor the accuracy of our forecast and check out the latest performance scores here.

Ocean waves

Here are links to wave-related forecast products available on this site. Linked charts are only displayed if you have correct access rights. Find out about who can access our information.

Ocean wave products can be seen in Charts catalogue

Extra tropical cyclones

These web-based products present the location and behaviour of near-surface synoptic scale features, such as warm and cold fronts and low-pressure systems, in both the HRES and the ensemble. An objective algorithm identifies and tracks cyclonic features through the forecast.

extra-tropical cyclone products page (not yet available on new site)